Some analysts link that pattern to seasonal changes in global demand for gold. They also see that these price changes can be used to inform decisions about investing in gold, such as when considering a Gold IRA rollover guide. Why does accuracy start with 100%? Because that's the day that all other days are compared to. The first day compared to the first day is no prediction, it is only a statement of the price of that day, which is why it says a change of 0% and an accuracy of 100%.The utility starts the next day and that's when the accuracy stops being 100%.
What's interesting is that accuracy decreases over time. Is there anything special about the first part of the year that brings accuracy levels closer to 100% than they were in the last quarter? No, there's nothing special about it, accuracy decreases over time, because it always compares a given price with the first date on the chart. In the case of the annual chart, it is January 1.The key point is that much more can happen between January 1 and November 1 than between January 1 and January 10. Many different things can and will happen that can cause gold to move in any direction and move away from normal patterns. Some things are repeated every year, but others are very different, and the more the time frame is considered, the more unpredictable can occur.
Consequently, it is normal that, relative to the beginning of the year, we obtain less accurate predictions if we try to estimate the performance of gold for the latter part of the year compared to the predictions of the beginning of the year. This is why, on average, the measurement of precision decreases over time. There are temporary increases in the precision value, meaning that at certain times of the year (for example, in the first half of October) the relative value of gold compared to the beginning of the year is more likely to be where the graph suggests than in the surrounding area. Another option is to buy at the beginning of the month, when gold is expected to peak, and then sell at the end of the month.
The key thing to keep in mind is that the measurement of precision for a given day means the consistency with which gold was in a certain position (or close to it) on that particular day, relative to the first day of the chart. In this chart, I have calculated the historical future return of gold in a year given the change in the dollar over the past year. In short, there is a clear and consistent relationship in the sense that declines in the dollar tend to cause gains in gold. There is a clear repetition in which months gold prices tend to rise, accompanied by the percentage of time that this pattern has been maintained for 31 years.
The quarterly chart shows that gold tends to fall by almost 0.5% in the middle of the month compared to the starting price in April. This strategy of holding gold for as long as its final 12-month return is positive has outpaced buying and holding both in terms of profitability and volatility. From a tactical point of view, this means that if investors are looking to capture this specific trend, they should try to add gold to their portfolios by the end of December (or during the next two weeks). While the summer months tend to herald warmer temperatures and an exodus of cabins for Canadians, the period has set a historically less optimistic outlook for gold.
However, what is not entirely evident to many investors is the predictive nature of the dollar's changes in relation to gold prices. With a symmetric triangle, together with other technical indicators such as the RSI, you can identify areas in which to trade gold.